Liquidity & Technical
Liquidity & Technical
PGHN trades CHF 85M of value per day (under 0.4% of market cap) with 100% session coverage and a sub-1% median daily range — institutionally tradeable, but capacity-constrained: any issuer-level position above roughly 0.4% of market cap takes more than five trading days to enter or exit at 20% ADV. The tape itself is bearish: price sits roughly 10% below the 200-day moving average with the 50-day in death-cross territory since April 2025, the stock is at the 23rd percentile of its 52-week range, and the recent bounce off the lows is being capped by elevated realized volatility (29%, p70 of the 5-year band).
1. Portfolio implementation verdict
5d capacity at 20% ADV (CHF M)
Largest 5d issuer position (% of mcap)
Supported fund AUM at 5% weight (CHF M)
ADV (20d) as % of market cap
Technical scorecard score (−6 to +6)
Capacity-constrained, bearish tape. A long-only fund up to roughly CHF 1.7B (USD 2.2B) can implement a 5% PGHN position over five trading days at 20% ADV; bigger funds need two-to-three weeks of patient block execution. The technical setup gives no urgency to act — price action says wait, not chase.
2. Price snapshot
Last close (CHF)
YTD return (%)
1-year return (%)
52-week position (0=low, 100=high)
Realized vol 30d (% ann.)
Beta is omitted: the standard CH broad-market series was not available for this run, so a fitted beta would be cosmetic. Realized vol substitutes as the cleanest single risk metric.
3. Price vs 50/200-day moving averages — full history
Death cross active. The 50d crossed below the 200d on 2025-04-25 and has not recovered; the prior death cross of 2024-08-07 was reversed inside ten weeks, but this one has now persisted for over twelve months without a reclaim of the 200d.
Price is below the 200-day moving average (close 879.2 vs SMA200 980.28, gap −10.3%) and only marginally above the 50-day (857.15). The full-decade view shows a single secular uptrend from 2016 to mid-2021 (peak CHF 1,658), a 50%+ drawdown into mid-2022, a partial round-trip into 2024, and now a renewed leg lower since the April 2025 break — current price has unwound almost three years of gains. This is a downtrend regime, not a base.
4. Relative strength vs benchmark
Broad-market and sector benchmark series were not staged for this Swiss-listed ticker (the run's relative-performance file has the company series rebased but no comparator). Rather than fabricate a comparison line we'll note the absolute facts: PGHN is −20% over the trailing year and −32% over five years, while diversified European financials and listed alternative-asset managers as a group have generally been positive over both windows. Read this as material relative underperformance and treat the next anchor (volume / sponsorship) as the substitute for a relative-strength chart.
5. Momentum — RSI(14) and MACD histogram
RSI sits at 49 — neutral on the surface but the structure is informative: every push to 70+ (Jan-25, Jul-25, Apr-26) has been followed by a sharp roll-over within four weeks, while the November-25 RSI low at 28 marked the price low. The MACD histogram has cycled three times in 18 months and is currently rolling negative again from a +13 peak in mid-April; that's a near-term sell signal until the histogram crosses back above zero. Net momentum read: failed rally, not new uptrend.
6. Volume, volatility, and sponsorship
The 50-day average has stair-stepped from roughly 45k shares/day in late August 2025 to over 130k in late April 2026 — volume is migrating into the downtrend, which usually marks distribution rather than accumulation. The structural lift in turnover is itself a sponsorship signal: big holders are repositioning, not adding.
Four of the five largest volume events in the last six years closed flat or sharply lower; the lone exception (May-21) was during the 2021 melt-up and only printed +0.2%. This is not a tape that spikes on good news — it spikes on selling.
Realized vol at 29% sits at roughly the 70th percentile of the 5-year band — elevated, not stressed. Combined with the stair-step in volume, this says the market is demanding a wider risk premium without yet panicking; consistent with a tape that is still discovering its low rather than rebasing higher.
7. Institutional liquidity panel
Capacity flag. The data file marks PGHN as is_illiquid = true because no issuer-level position above the 5-day capacity (CHF 84.5M / 0.37% of market cap) clears under normal 20%-ADV participation. Translation: this is a mid-cap with adequate trading depth for sized institutional positions, but it is not implementable for large funds at issuer-level weights of 0.5%+ inside a five-day window — block execution or extended timelines are required.
A. ADV and turnover
ADV 20d (shares)
ADV 20d value (CHF M)
ADV 60d (shares)
ADV / market cap (%)
Annual turnover (%)
ADV 60d (123k shares) running 28% above ADV 20d (96k) confirms the stair-step pattern visible in the volume chart — turnover is elevated against trend.
B. Fund-capacity table
Read across: at 20% ADV participation, this name absorbs CHF 84.5M (~USD 109M) over five trading days — supporting a 5%-weight position in funds up to CHF 1.7B (~USD 2.2B), or a 2%-weight position in funds up to CHF 4.2B (~USD 5.4B). Halve the participation rate and you halve the supported AUM.
C. Liquidation runway
D. Execution friction
Median 60-day daily range is 0.98% — tight, well under the 2% threshold where impact cost becomes a meaningful drag. Zero zero-volume sessions, 100% session coverage. Bid-ask cost is not the bottleneck; participation rate is.
Bottom line on capacity: at 20% ADV the largest issuer-level position that clears in five trading days is roughly 0.4% of market cap (CHF 90M / USD 116M); at 10% ADV that halves. A 1% issuer position takes 14 trading sessions to enter or exit at the more aggressive participation rate. PGHN is sized-position country, not "throw a 5% portfolio weight at it on day one" country.
8. Technical scorecard and stance
Stance — bearish on a 3-to-6 month horizon. Total scorecard score is −4 of a possible −6. The setup is a classic post-distribution downtrend: price below a falling 200d, momentum failing on each push to the upper bound, volume confirming the down moves, and realized vol elevated. The only constructive read is that the stock is closer to its 52-week low than its high — which is a bounce setup, not a turn. The two levels that change the view: (1) a daily close above CHF 985 (the 200-day SMA) reclaims the trend and forces a re-mark to neutral; (2) a daily close below CHF 785 (the 52-week low) confirms the next leg lower and turns the stance to outright avoid. Liquidity is not the binding constraint — the tape is. Funds that want exposure should watchlist for one of those two breaks rather than chase here; size any pilot position at sub-0.5% issuer weight so the implementation timeline stays inside two trading weeks at 20% ADV.